Rate unchanged, the rupiah near 18,000 and the governor walking into hotel kitchens. The week the crisis turned into an invoice. Issue 10 for 20–26 October 2026: 26 pages in Russian and English with the same articles and calculations.
After the queue: the week's timeline
How the fuel story closed day by day. Dates are those of the events, not of the publications.
- 19.10 Governor Wayan Koster extends the odd-even scheme for Pertalite to Friday 23 October, with the caveat that it can be lifted earlier if conditions normalise. Pertamina puts Bali's stocks at 5-11 days depending on fuel type.
- 20.10 Bali's tourism office says last week's disruption did not reduce arrivals: 22,000-24,000 foreign tourists a day, in line with September. The national government announces work to speed up fuel deliveries outside Java and Bali.
- 21.10 Bank Indonesia keeps its rate at 5.75% and raises the deposit facility rate to 5%. In Denpasar the governor meets unions demanding a minimum wage of Rp 5.25 million.
- 23.10 The odd-even scheme expires. Minister Bahlil Lahadalia says the subsidised Pertalite quota will be raised, with a figure to follow a review at the end of October. The rupiah closes the week at 18,080 per dollar.
- 23.10 At a dialogue with Bank Indonesia in Denpasar the governor warns hotels and restaurants of checks on the origin of kitchen produce. PLN reports 299 MW of spare capacity in the island's grid.
- 26.10 Denpasar police announce the arrest of four people for buying up subsidised petrol with other people's QR codes: 795 litres seized, jerrycans sold for up to Rp 400,000. The Bali parliament hands the executive the final Pansus TRAP report on zoning and permits.
Sources: NusaBali · 19.10 and 26.10.2026 · Antara Bali · 20.10 and 23.10.2026 · Bank Indonesia · 21.10.2026 · ANTARA · 23.10 and 26.10.2026 · Bali Discovery · 25.10.2026 · Kontan · 23.10.2026
Tourists did not notice the queue
Bali's tourism office speaks of 22,000-24,000 foreign arrivals a day. This is an operational estimate, not BPS statistics.
22-24k foreign tourists a day, 20 October, Dispar estimate · 7 airlines on Bali - Melbourne after TransNusa's launch · 16-17.6m 2026 target for foreign visits to Indonesia · 6 tourism special economic zones, including Kura Kura Bali
On 20 October the head of Bali's tourism office said the fuel shortage had not affected arrivals: 22,000-24,000 foreigners a day enter the island, the same as the September average. This is an estimate from operational immigration data. Final BPS figures for September and October will come later and may differ.
On 19 October TransNusa opened direct Bali - Melbourne flights and became the seventh carrier on the route. Australia remains the island's first market, and new capacity on a route usually presses on ticket prices rather than on villa occupancy straight away. Add bookings to a model for a new route only after real arrival data.
At national level, on 21 October the coordinating economic minister named the 2026 target: 16-17.6 million foreign visits to Indonesia. Six tourism special economic zones are expected to contribute, among them Kura Kura Bali on Serangan island off Denpasar. This is a government benchmark, not occupancy data.
For a villa owner last issue's conclusion still stands: watch your own bookings. If there were no cancellations because of the queues, the crisis week is over for the property. If there were, record them in the report as one-off costs rather than revising the model for the year.
Sources: Antara Bali · 20.10.2026 · Dispar Bali · Antara Bali · 20.10.2026 · TransNusa · Antara English · 21.10.2026
Bank Indonesia: rate 5.75%, deposit 5%
The decision of 21 October. The rate was left alone, but everything around it changed: the deposit facility rate, reserve requirements and hedging incentives.
5.75% BI-Rate, unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting · 5.00% deposit facility rate, raised by 25 bp · $146.3bn reserves at end-September, 5.3 months of imports · $9.9bn foreign capital inflows since June, per BI
The Board of Governors met on 20-21 October. The BI-Rate stayed at 5.75%, the lending facility rate at 6.50%, and the deposit facility rate was raised to 5.00%. A Bloomberg survey before the meeting split exactly in half: 19 economists expected a hike, 19 a hold. The regulator chose the middle: it is now dearer to keep rupiah on deposit and cheaper to hedge.
Hedging incentives were widened: the premium discount on six-month DNDF contracts rose from 25% to 40%, on twelve-month contracts from 30% to 45%. For an importer or developer buying materials in foreign currency this directly cuts the cost of insuring against the exchange rate. A private villa buyer cannot use the instrument directly, but banks and large contractors do.
The second part of the decision is liquidity. The reserve requirement for conventional banks falls from 9% to 7% in two steps on 1 November and 1 December, for sharia banks from 7.5% to 5.5%. The regulator expects 2026 credit growth of 8-12%. The 100% loan-to-value allowance for housing is extended through 2027.
For the property market the link matters: the rate is not rising, mortgages for citizens remain accessible, and the rupiah is defended by intervention rather than by the rate. That means that under renewed pressure on the currency the regulator is more likely to keep selling dollars than to hike sharply. For a foreign buyer with dollar income the exchange rate remains the main variable.
Sources: Bank Indonesia · press release · 21.10.2026 · ANTARA · 21.10.2026 · IDN Financials · 21.10.2026
Rupiah: 18,022, 18,060, 18,080
Three closes in a row above 18,000. Bank Indonesia reported 17,985 on 20 October and a firm commitment to stability.
According to Bank Indonesia, the rupiah closed at 17,985 per dollar on 20 October, 0.61% weaker than at the end of September. It then closed above 18,000 three trading days running: 18,022 on Wednesday, 18,060 on Thursday and 18,080 on Friday 23 October by spot-market data. Since the start of the year the rupiah has lost about 7.9%.
The causes are the same as a week earlier: MSCI's proposal to move Indonesia out of the emerging-market group, with a decision due on 30 June 2027, portfolio outflows and a strong dollar. The regulator answered not with the rate but with intervention in offshore and domestic markets and wider hedging incentives.
For a villa buyer holding dollars a rate above 18,000 means a rupiah price converts to fewer dollars and rupiah costs are cheaper in dollars. For an owner earning rupiah from local guests it is the reverse. So the currency in which a price is set, and the currency of the stage payments, matter inside a deal.
Check three fields in the contract: the currency of the price, the conversion rate and the moment it is fixed. A construction-stage payment tied to rupiah becomes cheaper in dollars if the currency weakens further and dearer if it turns. This is not a forecast, just a description of the mechanics.
Sources: Bank Indonesia · 21.10.2026 · Kontan · 21.10, 22.10, 23.10.2026 · IDN Financials · 21.10.2026 · Metro TV News · 16.10.2026
The exchange rate inside the October report
A conditional DOMA calculation. A villa with dollar revenue and rupiah costs, one month, two exchange rates.
| Line of the month | Rate 17,000 | Rate 18,080 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue: 18 nights at $150, in dollars | 2,700 | 2,700 |
| Manager's commission 25%, in dollars | −675 | −675 |
| Staff: 2 people, Rp 8.0m a month | −471 | −442 |
| Electricity and water, Rp 4.5m | −265 | −249 |
| Supplies and consumables, Rp 3.0m | −176 | −166 |
| Owner's result for the month, in dollars | 1,113 | 1,168 |
Take a property with an average rate of $150 and 18 paid nights a month. Revenue and the manager's commission are counted in dollars and do not depend on the exchange rate. Three cost lines are in rupiah: staff, utilities and supplies, Rp 15.5 million a month in total.
At 17,000 those costs are $912, at 18,080 they are $857. The difference of $55 a month, about $660 a year, is the effect of a weaker rupiah for an owner with dollar revenue. For a property earning rupiah from the domestic market the sign flips: dollar income would fall by 6% while costs stay the same.
The model ignores cost inflation, which on Bali reached 3.79% year on year in September. If staff and suppliers raise prices by the inflation rate, the exchange-rate gain roughly halves. So the report should show the two separately: the exchange-rate effect and the price effect.
The main conclusion is in the structure, not the sum. The more lines in rupiah, the more the report depends on the exchange rate. A management contract with a fixed percentage of dollar revenue moves the currency risk to the manager. A 'percentage plus reimbursement' scheme leaves it with the owner.
DOMA illustration. Exchange rates are conditional. Taxes, bank fees and unlisted costs are excluded. This is not a forecast of returns or a currency recommendation.
Bali's economy: 5.9% growth, 3.79% inflation
Bank Indonesia's Bali office gave two figures this week. One is about prospects, the other about prices today.
up to 5.9% forecast growth of Bali's economy in 2026 · 5.82% growth of Bali's economy in 2025 · 3.79% inflation on Bali in September, year on year · 1.5-3.5% inflation target range for the region
On 23 October, at a dialogue with market participants, Bank Indonesia's Bali office put the island's 2026 growth at up to 5.9% against 5.82% in 2025. Tourism, by the same estimate, makes up about 66% of the provincial economy, so the forecast rests on visitor flows and their spending.
The second figure is less welcome. Inflation on Bali in September was 3.79% year on year, above the 1.5-3.5% target range and above the national 3.28%. Bank Indonesia is working with the provincial authorities on price stabilisation, food prices first.
For a villa owner the growth forecast is not a forecast of property prices or of a particular property's occupancy. It is a benchmark for the economy as a whole. Inflation, on the other hand, goes straight into the budget: cleaning, laundry, food and wages are rising faster than the year's plan assumed.
The practical step is to check the management contract for indexation terms. If the commission is a share of revenue, cost growth stays inside the commission. If costs are reimbursed as incurred, the October report will show an increase on every line, and it is better to be ready for that.
Sources: Antara Bali · 23.10.2026 · Bank Indonesia Bali · Antara Bali · 21.10.2026 · Bank Indonesia · 21.10.2026
Tabanan: Tanah Lot and Jatiluwih
The regency west of Badung came up twice this week: the governor named Tabanan rice as the example of local produce for hotels, and the projected minimum wage for the regency is Rp 3.53 million. Archive photographs.
Tanah Lot. The temple on a rock off the Tabanan coast is one of the most visited places on the island. Low-rise development is growing around it, and this is where buyers most often meet the question of the coastal strip and the green zone. A view of the temple does not cancel the zoning check on a plot.
Jatiluwih. UNESCO-listed terraces and the rice fields the governor wants to see in hotel kitchens instead of imports. For a villa owner offering meals this is a new line in the supplier check: where the rice, eggs and vegetables come from, and whether there are documents of origin.
The governor walks into the kitchen
On 23 October Wayan Koster warned hotels and restaurants: refuse to buy local produce and face three warnings, then a licence review. The rule dates from 2018. What is new is enforcement.
At a dialogue with Bank Indonesia in Denpasar the governor recalled Regulation 99 of 2018 on the marketing and use of Balinese agricultural, fishery and industrial products. Hotels and restaurants must buy rice, eggs, vegetables, fruit, salt and meat from local producers. The governor said he had assigned staff to check the origin of produce in the kitchens themselves.
Sanctions are sequential: three formal warnings, then a review of the business licence. The governor also spoke of a tiered system of sanctions whose details are not yet published. The logic matches last week's statement on booking platforms: the province is tightening control of the tourism business through licences.
For a villa without a restaurant the requirement does not apply directly, but management companies with breakfasts, chefs and catering are in the frame. If the property is let with meals, ask the manager who the food supplier is and whether there are documents of origin. For now this is a matter of order, not of fines.
The flip side is prices. Local produce is not always cheaper than imports, and inflation on Bali is already above target. If the manager budgets for higher food costs, ask for them to be split in two: inflation and the change of suppliers. That way the report shows what changed at the authorities' request and what changed with the market.
| What is checked | Rule | Sanction |
|---|---|---|
| Origin of rice, eggs, vegetables, fruit, salt, meat | Pergub 99/2018 | Three warnings, then licence review |
| Accommodation licence for listings on platforms | Governor's call, 16.10 | Delisting under platform rules, OSS |
| Building compliance with zoning | Pansus TRAP report, 26.10 | Recommendations, not rules |
Sources: Bali Discovery · 25.10.2026 after NusaBali · speech of 23.10.2026 · Antara Bali · 16.10.2026
Minimum wage: 3.4 or 5.25 million
On 21 October unions and students demanded that the provincial minimum wage be raised to Rp 5.25 million. The governor called the current level too low but asked for time.
The meeting took place at the governor's office in Denpasar. The tourism, hotel and restaurant workers' federation FSPM and the Aksi Kamisan Bali alliance want a minimum wage of Rp 5.25 million a month against the current Rp 3.4 million. The governor agreed that 3.4 million is low but reminded them that the province is bound by the formula in regulation PP 51/2023.
By the governor's preliminary calculation with the formula's maximum coefficient, the minimum wage would come to about Rp 3.45 million. He is open to the decent-living-needs approach, which the provincial research agency is studying, but warned of risks: without a legal basis the decision becomes an audit finding, and a sharp wage rise pushes up prices.
Regency projections cited by the publication: Badung Rp 4.0 million, Denpasar 3.76 million, Gianyar 3.56 million, Tabanan 3.53 million. These are preliminary figures. The wage council will still discuss them and no decision date has been named. The unions promised to return to the governor's office once the figure is set.
For a villa owner staff wages are the second-largest cost line after the manager's commission. The minimum wage sets the floor. Actual market rates are higher, especially in Badung. But a demand of 5.25 million, if even partly adopted, would shift the whole market, including cleaning, security and gardeners on service contracts.
Sources: Bali Discovery · 25.10.2026 · meeting of 21.10.2026 · FSPM Bali · PP 51/2023
A villa's payroll: a conditional model
A conditional DOMA calculation. Three staff in Badung, three minimum-wage scenarios, exchange rate 18,080.
| Scenario | Rate, Rp m | Three staff a month, Rp m | Dollars a month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current provincial level | 3.40 | 10.20 | 564 |
| Badung projection by formula | 4.00 | 12.00 | 664 |
| Union demand | 5.25 | 15.75 | 871 |
| Difference: demand against the Badung projection | +1.25 | +3.75 | +207 |
Take a villa with three staff: an on-site manager, a housekeeper and a gardener. For simplicity each is paid exactly the minimum wage, with no allowances, bonuses or BPJS contributions. In reality Badung rates are above the minimum, so the model shows direction rather than amount.
At Badung's projected minimum of Rp 4.0 million the payroll is Rp 12 million, or $664 a month at 18,080. If the union demand of 5.25 million were adopted in full, the payroll would rise to Rp 15.75 million, up $207 a month or about $2,500 a year.
For a property with $2,700 of monthly revenue from the page 07 model that is 7.7% of revenue, or roughly 18% of the owner's net result. A shift of that size does not break a villa's economics, but it changes them visibly. A partial rise, say to 4.5 million, gives half the effect.
The practical conclusion: the management contract should say in advance how staff rates are revised when the minimum wage changes and who pays the difference. The wage council's decision usually comes in November-December and applies from January, so there is time to agree.
DOMA illustration. Minimum-wage figures are from publications. BPJS contributions, the thirteenth salary and allowances are excluded. This is not a forecast or legal advice.
Pansus TRAP: final report on zoning
On 26 October the Bali parliament's special committee on spatial planning, assets and permits handed its final recommendations to the executive. These are recommendations, not rules.
The Pansus TRAP committee served two terms and wound up its mandate in early October. At a plenary session on 26 October its chair Made Supartha handed the final report to parliament speaker Dewa Made Mahayadnya, who passed it to deputy governor Nyoman Giri Prasta. According to NusaBali the report contains five recommendations on land use, zoning, permits and possible penalties.
The context is known from the first report in June. Then the committee examined the Kura Kura Bali special economic zone and buildings on state and forest land in Pejarakan village in Buleleng, and demanded that officials who let violations accumulate be held to account. The second term was devoted to accumulated spatial-planning violations across the island.
Back in June the executive promised a technical assessment and work with law enforcement, but no haste. Which of the new recommendations will become a governor's order or a regency decision is not yet known. So it is too early to model penalties as costs, but not too early to check documents.
For a buyer the list is the same and short: the plot's compliance with zoning, a PBG building permit and an SLF certificate, and an accommodation licence if the villa is let. A property with all of these will not suffer from the recommendations. A property without documents risks landing on the list at the next inspection.
- Zoning Request the land-use statement for the plot and compare it with what is actually built.
- PBG and SLF Check numbers and dates, not just that the papers exist. A mismatch in floor area is a common finding.
- Coastal and river setbacks For waterside properties, a separate check of setbacks under provincial rules.
- Business licence NIB, KBLI code 55193 and the standard certificate if the villa is rented out.
Sources: NusaBali · 26.10.2026 · Bali Post · 26.10.2026 · Antara Bali · 20.06.2026 · Radar Bali · 08.10.2026
Intermediaries, visas and a five-day KITAS
Two items on foreigners' status: a deportation for marketing a villa on a tourist visa, and a promise to speed up work permits.
On 16 October the Buleleng immigration office deported a 46-year-old Czech woman who had entered on a visa on arrival and was marketing a villa in Karangasem. The report came out on 23 October. Working on a tourist visa, including brokering deals, remains grounds for deportation and an entry ban.
For a buyer this is a reminder to check the intermediary. If a foreigner is handling the deal, ask for their work permit and a written authority from the seller. An agent without status bears no liability under the contract and can vanish at any moment, and money handed to them will be hard to recover.
The second item is from Jakarta. On 20 October the investment minister said about 328 permits had been issued through the new integrated mechanism and that the government wants KITAS processing cut to five working days. This is a statement of intent, not a rule change. Check the timelines immigration actually works to with a lawyer.
For a villa owner living on the island a KITAS is the basis for residence, work and opening a bank account. Faster issuance shortens the pause between purchase and legal residence but does not change the list of documents. Building and rental permits, we recall, are issued by local authorities, not by immigration.
| Intermediary's status | What to ask for | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Indonesian agency with an NIB | NIB number, agreement with the seller | Low |
| Foreigner with a KITAS and a work permit | Copy of KITAS, IMTA/RPTKA, authority | Medium |
| Foreigner on a tourist visa | Nothing can be confirmed | High: deportation, a deal with no one to answer for it |
Sources: detikBali · 23.10.2026 · Buleleng immigration · Antara English · 20.10.2026 · Ministry of Investment
Energy: 299 MW spare and the Denpasar plant
PLN reported spare capacity, and Danantara put the waste-to-energy plant at 20% complete. Both figures describe the island, not a particular street.
| Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Available capacity of Bali's grid | 1,678 MW | PLN, 23.10 |
| Peak load | 1,379 MW | PLN, 23.10 |
| Spare capacity | 299 MW, about 22% | Calculated from PLN data |
| PSEL plant in Denpasar, completion | about 20% | Danantara, 26.10 |
| Planned start of the plant | first half of 2028 | Danantara, 26.10 |
On 23 October PLN said Bali's grid can deliver 1,678 MW against a peak load of 1,379 MW. The 299 MW margin is about 22% of peak, which is considered normal for an island system. Even so, the company does not rule out local outages: lines and substations in some areas wear out faster than the overall balance suggests.
On 26 October Danantara, the state investment fund, put the Denpasar waste-to-energy plant at about 20% complete and named the first half of 2028 as the start date. In the last issue we cited an earlier 2027 benchmark: the schedule is slipping, and the power purchase agreement is not yet signed.
For a villa owner the island's spare capacity does not replace a check of the specific property. Three things matter: the contracted capacity with PLN, the outage history on that line and the cost of backup power. The crisis week showed that a generator without fuel is not a backup, and that lesson belongs in the energy passport we described in issue 09.
If you plan EV charging or air conditioning of a large area, ask PLN before buying whether capacity can be increased on your part of the network. In some southern areas the limit is exhausted, and a promise to 'add it later' is worth nothing without a letter from the company.
Sources: NusaBali · 23.10.2026 · PLN UID Bali · Antara Bali · 26.10.2026 · Danantara · detikBali · 16.10.2026
Water in south Badung, traffic at Uluwatu
Two reports from the island's most expensive regency: a capital injection for the water utility serving South Kuta, and a promise by Pecatu village to manage traffic at Uluwatu Temple.
On 23 October the Badung authorities announced a plan to increase the capital of the municipal water utility Tirta Mangutama to tackle the water shortage in South Kuta: Jimbaran, Uluwatu, Pecatu and the whole Bukit peninsula. The plan and the schedule to 2029 are not yet approved, so read the dates as intent.
For villas on the Bukit water has long been a budget line of its own. Some properties are on the network, some live on wells and trucked water. Before buying, ask for the connection contract and recent bills, and ask the manager how many times a season a water truck was called. Until the network is built out, this cost stays in the budget.
On 25 October the traditional village of Pecatu promised to strengthen traffic management at Uluwatu Temple, where a jam builds after the evening Kecak performance. This is a village decision, not a regency one, and it may touch parking, access and paid entry. Villas along that road receive their guests precisely in the evening hours.
A practical question for the manager: which routes are used for guests and suppliers in the evening, and what changes if the village closes the approach. Village decisions on Bali sometimes work more strictly than regency ones, because they are enforced on the spot. They deserve the same attention as official regulations.
Sources: detikBali · 23.10.2026 · Badung government · NusaBali · 25.10.2026 · Pecatu village
Taxes: the Denpasar audit and the BPHTB refund
The city found Rp 10.12 billion in arrears and 575 green-zone properties that changed function. Badung has still not paid the refund of overpaid transfer tax.
On 26 October Denpasar's tax agency reported the results of an audit: Rp 10.12 billion in unpaid regional taxes and 575 objects in the green zone that have changed function. The second matters more than the first: these are buildings on land where, under zoning, building is not allowed or not what was built.
For a buyer in Denpasar, including Sanur and Serangan, this is a signal to check two things before a deal: whether the tax record matches the property's actual use, and whether the PBB-P2 land tax has been paid for past years. A statement of no arrears is issued by Bapenda and is worth getting before signing.
The second story carries over from last week. Badung's tax agency requested a refund of Rp 439 million in BPHTB for twelve taxpayers who overpaid the transfer tax, but the regency finance office had not yet received the file and the money has not been paid. Overpayment arises when a deal falls through after the tax is paid or the price is revised.
To avoid joining that queue, agree in advance who files for a refund and by when, and keep all payment documents and the termination agreement. A refund is the taxpayer's right, but the time it takes varies markedly between regencies, and months should be allowed for it.
| Check before the deal | Where | What it confirms |
|---|---|---|
| Statement of no PBB-P2 arrears | Regency Bapenda | Land tax paid for past years |
| Property use matches the tax record | Bapenda, zoning office | Property is not on the changed-function list |
| BPHTB calculation and refund procedure | PPAT notary, Bapenda | Who pays and who reclaims if the deal fails |
Sources: NusaBali · 26.10.2026 · Denpasar Bapenda · NusaBali · 19.10.2026 · Badung Bapenda
Bali budget 2027: capital spending down 58%
The draft provincial budget cuts capital spending to Rp 337.8 billion. Legislators want an explanation. This is a draft, not an approved document.
Rp 337.8bn capital spending in Bali's draft 2027 budget · −58.1% against the 2026 level · Rp 3.75tn for comparison: Gianyar's revenue in its 2027 draft, issue 09 · 2029 horizon of Badung's water plan, not approved
On 26 October NusaBali reported that the draft provincial budget for 2027 cuts capital spending by 58.1% to Rp 337.8 billion. Members of the Bali parliament demanded an explanation of which projects are being postponed. The source does not say current construction is cancelled. The cut concerns new investment.
The provincial budget is not the whole island's budget. Roads, water and permits are mostly funded by the regencies: Badung, Gianyar, Denpasar. Gianyar, we recall, set aside Rp 155.4 billion for roads in 2027. So a cut at provincial level hits large inter-regency projects first, not the street outside a villa.
For an investor the rule is simple: value areas with funded projects and contractors on site above areas with promises. A promised bridge, road or water main in a developer's presentation has no value until there is a line in an approved budget and a contractor with a schedule.
The draft will be debated until the end of the year and may change. We will return to it when line-by-line figures and the list of postponed projects appear. Until then provincial construction for 2027 should be treated as uncertain.
Sources: NusaBali · 26.10.2026 · DPRD Bali · Antara Bali · 12.10.2026 · detikBali · 14.10.2026
Kintamani and Bedugul: photo diary
The island's highlands: Mount Batur and Lake Bratan. This is where the water that the south lacks comes from. Archive photographs.
Batur. The volcano and its caldera lake in Bangli regency, the most popular spot for sunrise climbs. The land around the caldera is a protected geopark zone, and properties here are sold rarely and with complicated status. If someone offers a 'villa with a volcano view', the first question is the plot's designated use.
Bratan. The lake at Bedugul in Tabanan and the temple on the water dedicated to the goddess of lakes. Water from here feeds the irrigation of the rice terraces, Jatiluwih among them. When Badung recapitalises its water utility for South Kuta, it is precisely about moving water from the north and centre of the island to the dry peninsula.
Indonesia: housing and capital abroad
Two national stories that do not describe Bali's villa market but show where policy is heading.
- 15.10 The housing ministry reported 937,671 homes built or renovated in 2026. Most were funded outside the state budget. The report came out on 25 October.
- 21.10 The coordinating economic minister named a target of 16-17.6 million foreign visits in 2026 and six tourism special economic zones as the tool for reaching it.
- 25.10 Danantara completed the purchase of the 1,461-room Novotel Thakher hotel in Makkah. According to the publication, Indonesia became the first foreign country to buy property in Saudi Arabia after the rules were eased. The price was not disclosed.
The housing programme continues the policy we covered in issue 09: 181,307 subsidised mortgages out of a 350,000 plan by mid-October and a focus on housing for citizens. The 937,671 figure is for the whole country and the affordable segment. It does not transfer to the economics of rental villas.
The hotel purchase in Makkah by a state fund is interesting for another reason: Danantara is simultaneously building the Denpasar plant, buying foreign assets and managing the state-company portfolio. It is the same fund on which the timing of Bali's infrastructure projects depends. Its priorities are part of the risk in any 'promised' project.
The national target of 16-17.6 million tourists is comparable to the figure the Bali governor gave for the island in a year: 7 million foreign and 9.3 million domestic guests, 16.3 million in all. The match in scale is no accident: Bali remains the main gateway, and national targets are largely built from it.
For a villa owner one thing matters in all this: the state keeps investing in tourism and housing, but counts them its own way. National figures are good for reading direction, not for calculating the return on a particular house.
Sources: detikProperti · 25.10.2026 · Ministry of Housing · detikProperti · 25.10.2026 · Danantara · Antara English · 21.10.2026 · Bali Discovery · 25.10.2026
Flows: 2026 targets and new routes
How the week's figures relate: the tourism office's estimate, the governor's words and the government's target.
Foreign guests of Bali a year, per the governor: 7.0m · Domestic guests of Bali a year, per the governor: 9.3m · Target for foreign visits to Indonesia, 2026, lower bound: 16.0m · Target for foreign visits to Indonesia, 2026, upper bound: 17.6m
An estimate of 22,000-24,000 foreign arrivals a day corresponds to roughly 660,000-720,000 a month. For comparison, BPS counted 685,994 arrivals in August. If October holds in that range, the crisis week will not be visible in the statistics, which is what the tourism office claims.
New routes add capacity, not demand. TransNusa on Melbourne became the seventh carrier, and the first effect is usually lower fares on the route. For villas that means a slightly cheaper journey for guests from Australia, not an automatic rise in occupancy.
The same week Bali was again named one of Asia's leading wedding destinations at the World Travel Awards, and South Korea announced plans to open a consulate in Denpasar. Both items are about reputation and convenience rather than numbers, but a consulate is a sign of a steady flow from a country served by direct flights.
For an occupancy model the rule is unchanged: add bookings only on actual arrival data and your own reservations. Government targets and awards move demand slowly and platform prices not at all.
Sources: Antara Bali · 20.10.2026 · Dispar Bali · Bali Discovery · 25.10.2026 · Antara English · 21.10.2026 · BPS via ANTARA · 01.10.2026
The recovery-week report
What to ask the manager for at the end of October, now that the queue is over and the bills remain.
| Report section | What should be in it | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Cancellations and date changes 12-23 October | List of bookings, reason, refund amount, who withheld commission | Separate one-off losses from normal dynamics |
| Fuel and transport | Receipts for the generator, staff taxis, detours, with dates | Confirm costs belong to the crisis days |
| Staff overtime | Hours, rate, who approved | Avoid a dispute on payday |
| Purchases | Supplier prices against September, supplier list with origin | Inflation of 3.79% and the governor's requirement |
| Exchange rate | Conversion rate for each payment, date fixed | Exchange-rate effect shown separately from price effect |
| Utilities | PLN and water bills, water-truck call-outs | Base for the energy passport and the water line |
A report for a crisis month reads differently from a normal one. The main task is to separate one-off from permanent. Cancelled bookings and generator fuel are one-off lines and need not go into the model for the year. Supplier price rises and currency revaluation are permanent and will still be there in November.
Ask the manager to show the exchange rate on each rupiah payment. In a week when the rate moved from 17,985 to 18,080, the date of fixing changes the dollar amount by fractions of a percent. That is small, but over a year those fractions add up to a visible sum, and the habit of seeing them is useful.
A supplier list with the origin of produce is a new request, and the manager may be surprised. Explain the context: the governor has promised kitchen checks, and if the villa offers breakfasts or a chef it is better to know where the rice and eggs come from before an inspector asks.
If the manager answers 'all as usual', ask for figures. A usual month does not happen in a week when staff queued for three hours. Either costs rose and are visible, or someone absorbed them, and that too should be written down.
DOMA editorial method. The contents of a report depend on the management contract and the platforms the property is let through.
Procurement and supplier passport
Five blocks to assemble before inflation, the exchange rate and produce-origin checks land in the same report.
| Block | What to record |
|---|---|
| Suppliers | Name, contact, what they supply, since what year, whether there is a document of origin |
| Prices | Base price per item as of September 2026, revision rule, who approves |
| Currency | Which items are tied to the dollar: equipment, chemicals, imported food, subscriptions |
| Staff | Rate, date of last revision, rule when the minimum wage changes |
| Utilities | Contracted PLN capacity, tariff, water source, cost of a water truck |
The procurement passport continues the fuel and energy passports from previous issues. The idea is the same: record the baseline so that when things change there is something to compare with. The week gave three reasons: inflation above target, a rate above 18,000 and the promise of kitchen checks.
Start with suppliers. For a villa without meals there are few: cleaning, laundry, pool, garden, guest consumables. For a villa with breakfasts, food is added, and here origin matters: local rice from Tabanan and salt from Amed meet the governor's requirement, imported produce does not.
Record prices on a date, not 'roughly'. September 2026 is a convenient base: it precedes the crisis week and the inflation uptick. Write the revision rule down in advance, for instance once a quarter by an index rather than on a supplier's phone call. That protects both the owner and the manager.
The currency block is often skipped. Equipment, pool chemicals, platform subscriptions and some imported food are priced in dollars even when the invoice is in rupiah. At 18,080 those items have risen 7-8% in rupiah since the start of the year, and the manager should show that rather than bury it in 'other costs'.
DOMA editorial method. Tax and legal questions on supplier and staff contracts are for a specialist adviser.
Market in numbers
Only confirmed data with a date and a source. The statistical period is stated separately from the publication date.
| Indicator | Value | Source, date |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Indonesia rate, 21.10 | 5.75%, unchanged | Bank Indonesia, 21.10 |
| BI deposit facility rate, 21.10 | 5.00%, +25 bp | Bank Indonesia, 21.10 |
| USD/IDR, 20.10 | 17,985 | Bank Indonesia, 21.10 |
| USD/IDR close 21.10 / 22.10 / 23.10 | 18,022 / 18,060 / 18,080 | Kontan, 21-23.10 |
| Rupiah year to date | about −7.9% | IDN Financials, 21.10 |
| Indonesia's reserves, end-September | $146.3bn | Bank Indonesia, 21.10 |
| Inflation in Indonesia, September | 3.28% y/y | Bank Indonesia, 21.10 |
| Inflation on Bali, September | 3.79% y/y | Antara Bali, 21.10 |
| Bali growth forecast, 2026 | up to 5.9% | Antara Bali, 23.10 |
| Foreign tourists a day, October | 22-24k | Antara Bali, 20.10 |
| Target for foreign visits, Indonesia, 2026 | 16-17.6m | Antara English, 21.10 |
| Bali guests a year: foreign / domestic | 7.0 / 9.3m | Bali Discovery, 25.10 |
| Bali minimum wage: current / demand | Rp 3.4 / 5.25m | Bali Discovery, 25.10 |
| Projected minimum wage, Badung | Rp 4.0m | Bali Discovery, 25.10 |
| Grid capacity / peak | 1,678 / 1,379 MW | NusaBali, 23.10 |
| PSEL plant, Denpasar | 20%, start H1 2028 | Antara Bali, 26.10 |
| Capital spending, Bali draft budget 2027 | Rp 337.8bn, −58.1% | NusaBali, 26.10 |
| Tax arrears, Denpasar | Rp 10.12bn, 575 objects | NusaBali, 26.10 |
| BPHTB refund, Badung | Rp 439m, unpaid | NusaBali, 19.10 |
| Petrol seized from resellers, Denpasar | 795 l, up to Rp 400k a jerrycan | ANTARA, 26.10 |
Quarterly and annual indicators refer to the whole island or country and do not transfer to individual villas.
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