What the office said
I Gusti Ngurah Wiryanata, head of Disperindag Bali, told reporters in Denpasar on Thursday that the fuel shortage has begun to touch food prices in traditional markets. In his words there is no sharp spike yet, but garlic is already noticeably dearer.
The office relies on a SiGapura Bali portal analysis of the shortage's effects. The report gives the period as September 12 to 13, which, given the timing of the crisis, looks like a slip, so we do not cite exact calculation dates. Overall inflation is estimated to remain under 0.1 percent.
What got more expensive
The early warning, as the office calls it, covers seven of 20 goods. Most are fruit and vegetables shipped in from other islands, so their price depends on the cost and reliability of transport.
Garlic rose from Rp 30,000 to Rp 30,429. Local oranges gained 0.75 percent, large red chili 0.63, shallots 0.40, medium-grade rice 0.13, cayenne chili 0.10 and premium rice 0.06 percent.
What got cheaper or held steady
Six staples either fell or stayed stable. Sugar lost 1.69 percent, pork 1.42, eggs 1.25 and cooking oil 0.08 percent.
Wiryanata read this as a sign that local supply is still ample and not yet reliant on long-distance fuel deliveries. Large distributors told him the supply chain from Java and other regions is working.
Where the risk lies
The weak spot is local transport: truck drivers in Bali have themselves been left without fuel. Warehouse stocks are thin, with 2 tons of red chili, 9 of cayenne, 12 of garlic and 14 of oranges. If disruption lasts three to five days, the office expects these stocks to run out and prices to climb by as much as 20 percent.
Should it go beyond a week, the office describes three phases. In the second, rice and cooking oil would rise, in the third eggs and chicken. This is the office's scenario, not a price forecast.
How to read these numbers
The changes of a fraction of a percent or a few hundred rupiah are small, and the office itself says there is no jump yet. Stocks matter more: when the entire island has only 2 tons of red chili in warehouses, the smallest delivery hiccup quickly becomes a shortage at the markets.
Food prices affect more than households. Restaurants, hotels and villas offering meals buy the same goods, so dearer vegetables and spices gradually reach their costs. The source does not yet assess that effect.
Proposed measures
Disperindag recommends giving priority fuel access to trucks hauling food, holding market operations for chili and garlic, and tracking daily any item with stock below 20 tons.
These remain recommendations. The source does not say which steps have been approved or when market operations would begin.