What BPS reported
The statistics agency BPS Bali said on 2 November 2026 that the fuel supply crisis in mid October became one of the triggers of inflation by obstructing the flow of goods. BPS Bali head Agus Gede Hendrayana Hermawan called 11 to 15 October a rare event for the island, when fuel supply fell short of demand.
As a result, monthly inflation (against September) in October 2026 was 0.25%. For comparison, October 2024 saw 0.07% and October 2025 saw 0.16%.
Monthly inflation shows how much prices rose compared with the previous month. Annual inflation compares October 2026 with October 2025. The annual rate is the one used to judge how living costs and business expenses are changing.
Two drivers: transport and harvests
According to the BPS head, the fuel disruption did not act alone. At the same time a long dry season on Bali limited the output of food crops and horticulture. In both cases supply fell short of demand, and distribution was hampered, especially in October.
The food, beverages and tobacco group made the main contribution to monthly inflation at 0.18 percentage points, with group inflation of 0.53%.
In BPS reports the word contribution (andil) means how many percentage points a given item or group added to overall inflation. A product can therefore rise sharply in price yet contribute little if its weight in consumption is small.
What rose the most
Vegetables led. Red chilli rose 51.43% over the month, bird's eye chilli 12.23%, green mustard 55.58%, white cabbage 51.81% and green beans 30.26%. Pork rose 2.56% on higher feed costs such as corn and bran.
On an annual basis, petrol was the main contributor: its price rose 8.00%, adding 0.42 points. BPS attributes this to a price adjustment by the government.
Red chilli contributed 0.09 points, bird's eye chilli 0.06, green mustard 0.05, and white cabbage and green beans 0.04 points each. Pork added 0.02 points. These figures show that the price rise was broad rather than tied to a single product.
Annual and year to date figures
Year to date, meaning October 2026 against December 2025, Bali inflation reached 2.74%. Annual inflation (October 2026 against October 2025) was 3.87%. BPS notes it has passed the national reference of 3.5%.
BPS also notes that the monthly rate is higher than in the same month of the two previous years.
The source does not say how much of the annual rate comes from one-off factors and how much from lasting ones. It is therefore too early to say that inflation will return to 3.5%.
What this means for residents and business
For hotels, villas and restaurants, higher purchase prices for food and fuel mean higher guest catering and logistics costs. For residents it means an expensive vegetable basket, which hit the food group hardest.
The source gives no inflation forecast for the coming months and no estimate of how the fuel crisis will affect tourist flow. Those questions remain open.