What happened
On Friday, 23 October 2026, at the Temu Wirasa 2026 gathering in Denpasar, Achris Sarwani, head of Bank Indonesia's representative office in Bali, presented the regulator's outlook for the province. Bank Indonesia expects Bali's regional output to grow by up to 5.9% in 2026. The island's economy grew 5.82% in 2025, so the forecast implies a modest acceleration.
Sarwani said growth and stability on the island need to be protected consistently and jointly by the authorities, businesses and the central bank. The number remains a projection: the final result will only be known once fourth-quarter statistics are published.
The quarterly numbers
According to BPS (the national statistics agency) for Bali, the economy grew 5.58% in the first quarter of 2026 and 5.78% in the second. The third quarter has not been counted yet, with BPS expected to release the figure in the first week of November 2026.
The central bank expects inflation to remain within its 1.5-3.5% target band. That is a stated goal rather than a result: earlier reports put Bali's annual inflation in September above the top of the band, and the regulator spoke of stepping up price measures.
Bank Indonesia names investment, household consumption, government spending and agriculture as the pillars of growth. Its projection draws on surveys of households, retailers, businesses and the property market, plus activity data from PLN (the state power utility), PDAM (regional water utilities) and ASDP (the state ferry operator) that track the movement of goods and passengers.
What the governor said
Bali Governor Wayan Koster, speaking at the same event, estimated tourism's contribution to the island's economy at about 66%. He said growth in 2026 could exceed 6%. In 2025, he noted, around 7.05 million foreign tourists arrived by air, excluding cruise passengers, while domestic visitors numbered 9.3 million.
For comparison, the governor cited 2019, when 6.28 million foreign visitors came to the island. He put current foreign arrivals at 22,000 to 25,000 people a day.
Provincial policy priorities
Koster listed the areas he believes underpin growth: using locally grown agricultural produce, supporting UMKM (micro, small and medium enterprises), making the island self-reliant in energy, tackling congestion while promoting environmentally friendly transport, and building infrastructure.
His stated aim is to keep money circulating within Bali along the whole chain, from producers to end buyers. This is a policy position, no new regulations or deadlines were announced at the meeting.
Context
The forecast lands after a difficult October. In the first half of the month the island suffered a fuel shortage with long queues at petrol stations, and Bank Indonesia had earlier assessed its effect on growth and inflation. Tour operators reported no notable drop in arrivals at the time, and the regulator now confirms it still expects the year to accelerate.
For the property market, a growing economy and a growing visitor count mean sustained demand for rentals and services. Yet tourism's share of about two thirds of the economy is also the main vulnerability: any external shock to flights or visa rules hits villa owners' income directly.