What Bank Indonesia said
The Bank Indonesia office for Bali province issued a written statement on 13 October 2026 on how the petrol shortage affects the island's economy. The main message is that the shortage is being felt but has not yet caused a serious disruption to overall economic activity. Fuel has been tight in Bali since early October, and the situation worsened from Monday 12 October.
Head of the office Achris Sarwani said BI is monitoring fuel supply and distribution. The bank is stepping up coordination with the local government, the regional inflation control team (TPID), Pertamina and business operators.
The simulation numbers
BI modelled two scenarios. If the restrictions last three to five days, the effect on Bali's growth would be about 0.014% and on inflation about 0.010%. If they stretch to seven days, the estimates rise to 0.019% for growth and 0.018% for inflation.
This is the bank's calculation on the assumption that supply and distribution recover. BI judges that in that case the impact on the economy and inflation stays relatively limited. It does not give an estimate for a longer shortage.
Where the strain shows most
According to BI's monitoring and talks with businesses, the biggest effects are on the mobility of residents and tourists and on part of company operations. The source lists delayed tourist transport, hotel guest pick-ups and drop-offs, and deliveries of food, drinks and laundry services.
The queue times show the scale. Last week motorcyclists waited about 30 minutes for Pertalite, the subsidised petrol. By the start of this week the wait had grown to about an hour, and on Tuesday 13 October some drivers reportedly waited more than two hours.
Prices and goods supply
The bank checked several traditional markets and spoke with businesses. Stocks of essentials look adequate so far, and food prices are broadly stable. BI sees no widespread price pressure.
The bank does remind readers that distribution and logistics costs could climb in the near term. For that reason a steady flow of fuel, especially subsidised fuel, is named as one condition for price stability and business activity.
What BI proposes
For the coming days the bank urges tighter cooperation between TPID and Pertamina, and asks officials and market players to publish supply updates regularly. That way residents understand the situation and avoid stockpiling fuel, known as panic buying.
For the medium and long term, BI suggests developing electric vehicles as a way to improve energy efficiency and protect the island's environment. The bank welcomed the steps Pertamina and the local government have taken to speed up the recovery of supply.