What happened
Indonesia's market for large houses has returned to growth while the broader housing market is still shrinking. That is the picture from SHPR, the quarterly residential price survey run by Bank Indonesia, the country's central bank. Primary sales of large houses climbed 13.08% year on year in Q2 2026, reversing an 8.03% decline in the first quarter.
Total new home sales are still contracting. They fell 2.36% in the second quarter, a clear improvement on the 25.67% slump recorded in Q1. The figures were reported by detikProperti on October 9, 2026.
The numbers by segment
The recovery is uneven. Large homes are lifting the market, while the middle segment remains under pressure, with mid-size house sales down 10.51%.
Prices follow a similar pattern. The price index for large houses rose 0.68% year on year in Q2, up from 0.50% a quarter earlier. On a quarterly basis, most of the gain came from Greater Jakarta and Banten (Jabodebek-Banten), where prices edged up 0.23%.
These are modest moves measured in fractions of a percent, not a jump. Still, the direction at the top of the market now differs from the middle.
Knight Frank's view
Syarifah Syaukat, senior research advisor at Knight Frank Indonesia, lists the headwinds plainly: weak purchasing power, pressure on the rupiah, inflation risk and global uncertainty.
Even so, the consultancy expects the number of very wealthy Indonesians to keep rising. Knight Frank projects the country will have 1,810 ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWIs) in 2026. That population could grow by more than 80% by 2031. Syaukat ties the outlook to natural resources, population growth, a positive GDP forecast and ongoing infrastructure building.
In her view, luxury housing follows its own logic. Buyers at this level depend less on KPR, Indonesia's standard home loan, so higher interest rates hit them less than ordinary buyers.
Global backdrop and a local example
Globally, prime property is also outpacing the wider market. Knight Frank data show luxury home prices rose 3.2% in 2025, compared with 2.9% for housing overall. Syaukat says the positive trend in the segment has been visible since 2023.
detikProperti cites an example from Gading Serpong in Tangerang, west of Jakarta. The Altadena Residences project sold 82 units priced at roughly Rp 3.5 billion to Rp 5.5 billion. It sits in the Pasadena Central District, a district of about 40 hectares connected to the Gading Serpong to BSD City road. Its follow-up phase, Altadena Prime, is being offered from above Rp 4 billion.
What it means for Bali
Bali is not broken out in the source data. The SHPR figures and the Tangerang example mainly describe the market for Indonesian homebuyers on Java, so they should not be applied to Bali villas one to one.
The useful takeaway is narrower. Indonesia has a growing pool of affluent buyers who are not reliant on mortgages and who choose property by location, access and neighbourhood character. Those same factors drive demand on Bali. At the same time, the overall market is still soft and the middle segment keeps falling, so the data do not point to a broad recovery in demand.