What BPS reported
The head of BPS in Bali province, Agus Gede Mahendrayana Hermawan, said on 2 November 2026 that the baseline area of rice paddy land (lahan baku sawah) in Bali was 64,774 hectares in 2024. That is 9.19% less than in 2019. By percentage decline, Bali ranks ninth among the country's provinces.
The figure matters beyond farming. Statisticians use it to calculate harvested area and then rice output. Current calculations still rely on data fixed in 2024. An update will come when the responsible authority issues a new decision.
It helps to separate two kinds of data. Paddy area shows how much land is officially classed as agricultural. Harvested area shows how much of it was actually planted and reaped during the year. The first changes slowly, the second depends on weather, water and farmers' own decisions.
Where the numbers come from
According to Mahendrayana, the area is set by a decree of the minister of agrarian affairs and spatial planning, who also heads the national land agency (ATR/BPN). Satellite imagery first shows what is paddy and what is not. The data is then checked on the ground with the relevant agencies.
So this is not a statisticians' estimate but an officially recorded list of land. Decisions of this kind can shape how a given plot is viewed when permits are considered, although the source does not discuss that link separately.
Harvested area and output in 2026
Provisional harvested rice area in Bali in 2026 is 95.73 thousand hectares. That is 0.71 thousand hectares, or 0.74%, below the previous year. The picture differs by period. From May to August the area fell by 3.52 thousand hectares, or 9.30%. In the first period of the year it rose by 0.64 thousand hectares (2.33%), and the third period is expected to gain 2.17 thousand hectares (6.95%).
Mahendrayana tied the difference to weather. Early in the year rainfall was better than in 2025, while a prolonged dry spell in the second period hit crops. Even so, unhusked rice output is estimated up 0.66%, about 3.86 thousand tonnes. Milled rice output is projected at 333.71 thousand tonnes, up 2.17 thousand tonnes.
Why the numbers may change
BPS warns that the data is provisional. For September to December 2026 productivity figures are not yet fully collected, so the average of the previous three years, 2023, 2024 and 2025, is used. Harvested area for September is already fixed, while October to December are still potential figures based on September observations.
Mahendrayana said final numbers may differ or come in lower, and output may not rise as currently expected. The risk is tied to a late start of the rainy season. In his assessment, an expected rise in output does not yet mean Bali's food production capacity has grown.
For residents and the market this means that even with higher output, the land under rice keeps shrinking. The 2026 figures do not cancel the longer trend of 2019 to 2024, and that trend is what to weigh when looking at rural plots.