What happened
At a Climate Week workshop in Denpasar on 7 October 2026, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) set out its view of Bali's energy transition. Its central point was that rooftop solar, known locally as PLTS atap, offers the fastest route to cutting the island's carbon emissions.
IESR works as a partner of the provincial government, which has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2045.
A rooftop system generates power on site, so a home, office or hotel covers part of its own demand. It needs no separate plot of land, while large ground-mounted projects, IESR notes, are often held back by scarce and costly land.
The gap in numbers
IESR data show renewables accounted for just 1.48% of Bali's electricity generation as of 2024. Yet the island's solar resource is estimated at more than 20 gigawatt peak.
According to the think tank's modelling, Bali would need 2 GW of solar capacity by 2034 and around 21 GW by 2045 to reach its target. The RUPTL, the electricity supply business plan of state utility PLN, allocates only 771 MW by 2034. That is well under half of what the model requires.
Why utility scale projects stall
Large plants of 5 to 10 MW and above have been slow to materialise. Land is another obstacle, since suitable plots are scarce and costly, a problem that bites hard on an island with Bali's land prices.
IESR also points to red tape. It says PLN's list of selected suppliers lacks transparency, and negotiations over power purchase agreements, known as PJBL, tend to drag on for a long time.
A quota that vanishes on day one
Interest in rooftop panels is climbing among households as well as commercial and industrial users. Connections, however, are capped by a national quota system under Energy Ministry regulation Permen ESDM No. 2 of 2024.
Abraham Octama Halim, research manager for energy system modelling at IESR, said the roughly 300 MW released for 2026 was absorbed immediately by the queue left over from the previous year. A fresh queue for next year formed straight away, he added.
The grid itself is another limit, as its hosting capacity for private generation is constrained. IESR wants utility scale batteries and wider transmission and distribution networks to ease it.
The think tank's proposals
IESR urges the province to require solar panels on government buildings and to offer relief on PBB, the annual land and building tax, as an incentive for others.
It also wants local stakeholders involved from the planning stage, for example through regional state enterprises (BUMD) and village enterprises (BUMDes). Halim argued the transition should not be driven only from the top in Jakarta without training local people to run the facilities themselves.
Its wider list includes a clear roadmap, revisions to the RUPTL and the national electricity plan RUKN, procurement reform and close coordination from ministries down to village level.
What it means for the island
For now these are recommendations from a research body, not government decisions. No mandate for solar on public buildings and no PBB tax relief has been adopted.
The direction is clear, though. Should the province follow this path, rooftops would become part of Bali's energy system. For private owners the binding constraint today remains the national quota and the queue to connect.
For local businesses the issue goes beyond the climate. Hotels, villas and commercial sites use a lot of electricity for air conditioning and pools. Generating their own reduces reliance on the grid, but only once a system is formally connected.