- ADR, RevPAR, occupancy, net yield and supply, with an">DUVI for Q4 2026 is 99.2, 0.8 points below the base quarter. Entry price edged up (P 101.4), rental economics and yield softened a little (R 99.4, Y 97.9), supply grew the most (S 95.2).
- The median finished 2BR leasehold villa in Ubud is $223,000 across 65 listings versus $220,000 in July. That is +1.4% in dollars while the rupiah lost about 1% over the quarter.
- The whole Ubud Airbnb market in the 12 months to September 2026 ran at 39% occupancy and Rp 1.91M ADR, listings grew 52% and revenue per listing fell 7.9% (AirROI). Managed villas live in a different world, DOMA runs at 87%.
- Four of the five issue figures are measured from open sources. The island listing count is an estimate of 6,000 with a 5,800–6,400 range because the Bali.RealEstate aggregator was unreachable in October.
- For buyers it is still a buyer's market. More choice, flat prices, and the decision rests on lease term, documents and a real rental track record, not renders.
The second issue of the DUVI index reads 99.2 against a base of 100. Ubud's villa market barely moved on price over the quarter but softened on the other three parameters. More listings, slightly weaker rental economics, and market net yield down to 9.3%. This is not a fall. It is a slow cooling driven by growing supply, a weak rupiah and tourist arrivals that have stopped growing.
A quick reminder. DUVI folds Ubud's villa market into one number from four parts. Entry price (P, weight 35%), RevPAR (R, 30%), net yield (Y, 20%) and supply balance (S, 15%). Base Q3 2026 = 100. Above 100 the market is pricier and stronger than base, below it is softer. Issue 2 data was collected in October and early November 2026, rupiah converted at 18,000 per dollar.
Q3 2026 → Q4 2026 across all metrics
| Metric | Q3 2026 (base) | Q4 2026 | Change | Q4 source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUVI | 100.0 | 99.2 | −0.8 pts | DOMA Research |
| P · Entry price | 100.0 | 101.4 | +1.4 | 65 listings, 5 platforms |
| R · RevPAR | 100.0 | 99.4 | −0.6 | estimate on AirROI data |
| Y · Yield | 100.0 | 97.9 | −2.1 | ROI-calculator methodology |
| S · Supply | 100.0 | 95.2 | −4.8 | estimate, see below |
| Median 2BR leasehold, Ubud | $220,000 | $223,000 | +1.4% | Bali Home Immo, Bali Villa Realty, Bali Exception, Villa Bali Sale, Excel Bali |
| Minimum off-plan entry, Ubud | $139,000 | $139,000 | 0 | DOMA, Mirador |
| Island median, leasehold | $256–299k | $261,000 | within range | Bali Home Immo, 2,194 listings |
| ADR 2BR mid-range, Ubud | $165 | $164 (estimate) | −0.6% | AirROI + Q3 base |
| Occupancy, island average | 63% | 63% | 0 | 60–65% corridor kept |
| Airbnb occupancy, whole Ubud market | 36.6% (Aug 2026) | 38.7% (to Sep 2026) | +2.1 p.p. | AirROI |
| DOMA occupancy | 87% | 87% | 0 | operating data |
| RevPAR 2BR, Ubud market | $104 | $103 | −1% | calculation |
| RevPAR DOMA | $144 | $144 | 0 | operating data |
| Net yield, market midpoint | 9.5% | 9.3% | −0.2 p.p. | estimate |
| Net yield DOMA, actual | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0 | operating data |
| Active villa listings, Bali | 5,711 | ≈6,000 (estimate) | +5% | range 5,800–6,400 |
| Land Ubud, outskirts / center | $250 / $750 per m² | $250 / $750 per m² | 0 | Balitecture, Magnum |
| Rupiah per dollar | 17,960 (July) | 18,135 (26 Oct) | −1.0% | Kontan, Databoks |
| Bank Indonesia rate | 5.75% | 5.75% | 0 | decision 21.10.2026 |
Prices in the table are asking prices, not transactions. Bali Villa Select estimates closings 8–12% below asking, Coco Development Group puts it at 5–15%.
P · Entry price. Median $223,000, up 1.4%
We pooled two samples for the median. The first is 47 finished 2BR leasehold villas in Ubud with a listed price from the Bali Home Immo catalogue (snapshot of 29 September 2026, 2,502 villas across the island, 183 in Ubud). The second is 18 spot checks on Bali Villa Realty, Bali Exception, Villa Bali Sale (Kibarer group), Excel Bali and Bali Home Immo in late October. Together 65 listings. Median $223,000, interquartile range $192,000–291,000, cheapest $93,865 for a villa in Mas on a 25.5-year lease, most expensive $625,000.
The two samples agree. The 47 Bali Home Immo rows give a median of $223,000, the 18 spot checks $221,700. That is a good sign, the sample is not skewed by one catalogue.
The $3,000 rise since July is noise within the margin of error. Two shifts inside the sample matter more. First, offers below $100,000 have appeared, both on short 20–25 year leases. Second, the Lease-Year Price for 2BR in Ubud holds at $9,240 on a median term of 25 years (it was $9,270 in September). Sellers are not cutting dollar prices, but they are not raising them either, while the rupiah lost about 1% over the quarter. In rupiah terms a villa got roughly 2.5% more expensive.
The minimum entry has not changed. A 72 m² 2BR villa in the Mirador project in Lodtunduh is still $139,000 turnkey with handover in September 2027. That is 38% below the median finished villa.
Land in Ubud costs what it did in July. Balitecture quotes $150–300 per m² of leasehold on the outskirts, Magnum Estate $250–750 per m² including plots near the center. Canggu $530–1,560, Seminyak $900–1,900. The 2–4× gap persists, and it is the reason an Ubud villa costs a third less than a coastal one of the same size.
R · RevPAR. The Airbnb market grew in volume, not in revenue
The freshest open rental data comes from AirROI, snapshot of 1 October 2026 for the 12 months to September. Ubud as a whole, all 2,861 active Airbnb listings, managed and unmanaged alike. Occupancy 38.7%, ADR Rp 1,914,449 (about $106), RevPAR Rp 821,889 (about $46 per open night). Listings grew 52% in a year, average revenue per listing fell 7.9% to Rp 224M (about $12,500).
The 2BR segment in Ubud does better than the market. 484 listings, ADR Rp 2,304,419 (about $128), occupancy 44%. These are the properties closest to what the index measures.
| AirROI, 12 months to September 2026 | Occupancy | Nightly rate | Revenue per listing, year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ubud, all listings | 39% | $113 | $13,291 |
| Ubud, 2BR | 44% | $128 | median $10,800 |
| Canggu | 38% | $215 | $23,444 |
| Seminyak | 40% | $279 | $31,078 |
| Pecatu (Uluwatu) | 43% | $222 | $28,794 |
| Bali overall | 38% | $165 | $17,700 |
Source: AirROI, Ubud and Bali pages, updated 01.10.2026. AirROI shows market dollar rates at its own 16,870 rate, our calculations convert rupiah at 18,000.
What this means for the index. Sub-index R takes the ADR of a mid-range 2BR villa in Ubud times island-average occupancy. The July base was $165 × 63% = $104. There is no open October data for exactly that segment, so the ADR is an estimate of $164, adjusted for AirROI dynamics and the exchange rate, and the 60–65% occupancy corridor is left unchanged. BPS puts Bali star-hotel occupancy at 67.3% in July 2026, 0.5 p.p. below last year, which indirectly confirms the market is neither growing nor collapsing. Market RevPAR $103, down 1%, R = 99.4.
DOMA-managed villas did not change their numbers over the quarter. 87% occupancy, $144 RevPAR per night across 30+ villas. The gap with the Ubud Airbnb market got even wider, 87% versus 39%. That is not about location, it is about management, ratings and response speed.
Y · Yield. Corridor midpoint 9.3%
The index takes market net yield as the midpoint of the 6–13% corridor under the ROI calculator methodology, after platform fees, management, tax and upkeep. In the base quarter that was 9.5%. When RevPAR slips 1% and entry price rises 1.4% at the same cost base, net yield moves to 9.3%. Y = 97.9. Gross yield on sellers' asking rents holds at 10% (median across 301 Bali Home Immo listings with both a price and a rent), Magnum Estate puts gross at 10–18%.
The actual figure for delivered DOMA partner villas is unchanged at 12.8% net. That is not a forecast, it is last year's data. How to separate fact from a developer's promise is covered in the financial model audit.
S · Supply. More listings, and it is the quarter's main drag
Honesty about the number first. The Issue 1 base is 5,711 active villa listings on the Bali.RealEstate aggregator (July 2026). In October and early November that site was unreachable for us, so there is no direct counter update. Instead we gathered indirect signals, and all of them point up.
- The Bali Home Immo catalogue added 333 new villas for sale in July–September 2026 against a total of 2,502, that is 13% of the base in a single quarter. The flow of new Ubud listings is roughly five times the spring level (details in the Ubud supply article).
- Villa Bali Sale (Kibarer group) listed 1,499 villas for sale on 1 November, 120 of them leasehold villas in Ubud.
- Airbnb listings in Ubud grew 52% in a year (AirROI). On one rental platform villa listings went from 2,400 in June to 3,300+ in October (The Bali RealEstate Dispatch, 16.10.2026).
- Bali's parliament counted 244 hotels and villas openly for sale in September, covered in a separate article.
A conservative estimate against that backdrop is 6,000 active listings, 5% above base, with a 5,800–6,400 range. S = 95.2. At the bottom of the range DUVI would be 99.6, at the top 98.3. Either way the index sits below 100, and either way the reason is the same, supply.
Quarter context
Three external factors explain why the market cooled rather than crashed. The rupiah weakened to 18,135 per dollar on 26 October, its weakest since June, and 18,176 on 28 October. For sellers pricing in rupiah that adds to the price, for dollar buyers it is 1% off the cost over the quarter. Bank Indonesia held its rate at 5.75% on 21 October but raised the deposit facility rate to 5%, defending the rupiah rather than stimulating credit. BPS Bali counts 3.9 million foreign arrivals for January–July 2026, down 1.98% year on year, with July the first positive month of the year at just +0.1%.
Methodology
Formula. DUVI = 0.35·P + 0.30·R + 0.20·Y + 0.15·S, each sub-index normalized to base Q3 2026 = 100. P is the median price of a finished 2BR leasehold villa in Ubud over base. R is 2BR ADR × average occupancy over base. Y is market net yield over base. S is an inverse supply index, base divided by the current listing count, so that growing supply lowers the value.
| Sub-index | Weight | Q4 2026 | Data status |
|---|---|---|---|
| P · Entry price | 35% | 101.4 | measured, 65 listings, 5 platforms |
| R · RevPAR | 30% | 99.4 | estimate on open AirROI data and Q3 base |
| Y · Yield | 20% | 97.9 | estimate, ROI-calculator methodology |
| S · Supply | 15% | 95.2 | estimate, aggregator unreachable, range 5,800–6,400 |
Sources. Listings from Bali Home Immo, Bali Villa Realty, Bali Exception, Villa Bali Sale, Excel Bali. Rentals from AirROI and BnbCalc. Land from Balitecture, Magnum Estate, Coco Development Group, Own Property Abroad. Macro from Bank Indonesia, Databoks, Kontan, BPS Bali. Operating data from 30+ DOMA-managed villas in Ubud.
Not included. Closed transaction prices, freehold villas, 4+ bedroom properties, long-term rentals. The index covers the 1–3BR leasehold segment in Ubud based on listing data.
Not obtained. The Bali.RealEstate counter, the Kibarer catalogue (Villa Bali Sale from the same group used instead), AirDNA absolute values (the public page shows only year-on-year changes), Airbtics and LandLoom data, the Bali Villa Select Q4 refresh, BPS Bali releases for August and September. Every estimate is flagged in the issue data, and values will be recalculated with a revision note when sources become available.
How to cite. “DOMA Ubud Villa Index (DUVI), Issue 2, Q4 2026, DOMA Research, domabali.com/en/index/”. Issue data is open in CSV and JSON under CC BY 4.0 on the index page.
What it means for an investor
- Entry price is flat. The median finished 2BR in Ubud has been $220–223k for two quarters running. There is no basis to wait for dollar prices to fall, sellers hold firm while the rupiah slides. There is room to negotiate, the gap between asking and closing is 5–15%.
- Choosing got easier, earning got harder. Supply is growing faster than rental demand. The whole Ubud Airbnb market runs at 39% and revenue per listing is falling. In these conditions the winners are properties with strong management and reviews, not a pretty render.
- Count in Lease-Year Price. At the same $223,000, a villa on a 20-year lease costs $11,150 per year, one on 29 years $7,690. The market median is $9,240. The lease term in the contract matters more than the finishes right now.
- Check yield against facts. Market net yield is 6–13%, midpoint 9.3%. If a developer promises 15–17%, ask what already delivered villas earned and show them the market RevPAR.
- Off-plan is still the cheapest entry. $139,000 versus $223,000 finished. The $84,000 difference is the price of waiting for handover, and it has to be weighed against construction risk, the document package and the team's track record.
The next issue will be based on January 2027 data. Subscribe to issues and the PDF on the index page.
Sources
- Bali Home Immo, villas for sale, DOMA Research snapshot 29.09.2026, 2,502 villas, 47 finished 2BR leasehold in Ubud with price
- Bali Villa Realty, Ubud villas, spot checks 01.11.2026
- Bali Exception, leasehold villas in Ubud, updates through 26.10.2026
- Villa Bali Sale (Kibarer), leasehold villas in Ubud, 120 listings, 01.11.2026
- Excel Bali, Ubud properties, updated 25.06.2026
- AirROI, Ubud Airbnb market, updated 01.10.2026
- AirROI, Bali Airbnb markets, updated 01.10.2026
- BnbCalc, Bali (Central), data as of October 2026
- Magnum Estate, Bali property prices 2026, 03.06.2026
- Balitecture, Bali land 2026
- Own Property Abroad, Bali land prices, 09.05.2026
- Coco Development Group, Bali prices, 26.05.2026
- Investland Bali, Bali Airbnb income 2026, 25.06.2026
- Bali Villa Select, price index Q3 2026, 27.06.2026
- Databoks, Bank Indonesia decision, 21.10.2026
- Kontan, rupiah close 26.10.2026
- Antara Bali, BPS on July 2026 arrivals, 01.09.2026
- GoodStats, BPS Bali hotel occupancy July 2026, 30.09.2026
- The Bali RealEstate Dispatch, w42–w43 2026, 16 and 23.10.2026
- DOMA operating data, 30+ villas in Ubud, 4,000+ Airbnb reviews
FAQ
What does DUVI 99.2 mean?
Ubud's villa market is slightly softer than the base quarter Q3 2026. Entry price rose 1.4%, while rental economics, yield and the supply balance eased. The biggest drag came from the growth in listings.
Why did entry price rise while the index fell?
Entry price carries 35% of the weight, the other 65% sits with RevPAR, yield and supply. A 1.4% price rise added 0.5 points, a 5% rise in supply took 0.7 points, and RevPAR plus yield took another 0.6.
Which figures are measured and which are estimated?
Measured: the 2BR median across 65 listings, AirROI rental data, land prices, the exchange rate and BI rate, tourist arrivals. Estimated: the island listing count (6,000, range 5,800–6,400), the 2BR mid-range ADR ($164) and the net yield midpoint (9.3%). Every estimate is flagged in the issue JSON.
Can I cite Issue 2?
Yes, as "DOMA Ubud Villa Index (DUVI), Issue 2, Q4 2026, DOMA Research, domabali.com/en/index/". The data is open under CC BY 4.0.