BPS: 650,169 arrivals in September, −1.15% over nine months, hotel occupancy 66.4%Inflation in Bali 3.87% and the rupiah at 18,147: a conditional model inside the reportJatiluwih: halted building sites, paddy land down 9.2%Bali as a financial centre, Badung water, a rainy-season passport and the November calendar

DOMA Journal 11: September in numbers and fields for sale. Arrivals, inflation 3.87%, rupiah 18,147 and Jatiluwih (27 October – 2 November 2026)

Published: DOMA Journal · daily digest

Arrival statistics, inflation at 3.87%, the rupiah near 18,150 and halted building sites in Jatiluwih. The week the awaited data came out. Issue 11 for 27 October – 2 November 2026: 24 pages in Russian and English with the same articles and calculations.

Download issue 11 · 24 pages

September: 650,169 arrivals and −1.15% for the year

BPS Bali presented the data on 2 November. The third quarter came in slightly ahead of last year, but nine months are still in the red.

650,169 foreign arrivals in September · −5.22% against August, 685,994 · +2.36% against September 2025 · 5,237,128 arrivals in January-September, −1.15% on 2025

In September 650,169 foreign guests arrived in Bali: 650,134 through Ngurah Rai airport and 35 by sea. Against August that is a 5.22% decline, the usual seasonal dip after the European holidays. Against September last year, according to the head of BPS Bali Agus Gede Hendrayana Hermawan, it is a 2.36% rise.

The third quarter was positive in all three months: July 697,809 against 697,107 a year earlier, August 685,994 against 682,866, September above last year's. But the first half was weaker, so for January-September the island received 5,237,128 guests, 1.15% fewer than in the same nine months of 2025.

Europe fell hardest in September: minus 18.1% from August. That is the end of the summer season, not a market reversal. Australia, by contrast, added 2.38% on August and delivered 165,100 arrivals, a quarter of the September flow.

For a villa owner these figures mean the crisis week in mid-October played out against an already declining seasonal flow. October data will come out in early December, and only then will it be clear whether the petrol queues showed up in arrivals. Until then the benchmark is your own bookings.

Sources: BPS Bali · press conference 02.11.2026 · detikBali · 02.11.2026 · Antara Bali · 02.11.2026

Hotel occupancy: 66.4% and the post-summer dip

Bali's star hotels were 66.42% full in September. That is the best figure among the provinces and the second monthly decline in a row.

Month 2026Star-hotel occupancy, BaliIndonesia overall
June54.28% (highest in the country)about 50%
July67.29%school holidays
August68.19%52.52%
September66.42%51.78%

According to BPS, national star-hotel occupancy in September was 51.78%, 0.74 percentage points below August and 1.62 points above September 2025. Bali stayed first at 66.42%, followed by Jakarta at 58.18% and South Papua at 56.97%. Non-star hotels nationwide were 25.57% full.

BPS deputy head Ateng Hartono attributed the decline to the end of the school holidays and the August holiday peak, as well as smoke from forest fires and volcanic activity in some regions. For Bali the September slip from 68.19% to 66.42% fits the usual seasonal pattern.

Hotel occupancy and villa occupancy are different quantities. Hotel statistics count star-rated properties and do not include villas on the platforms. But the direction matches: September and October, between the European summer and the December peak, are traditionally weaker, and that is the time for repairs, not for raising the rate.

The practical benchmark is simple. If your villa showed September occupancy well below 60% at a market price, the question is for the manager and the property, not the season. If above 70%, the rate may be too low. Compare with neighbours in your area, not with the island-wide figure.

Sources: BPS · 02.11.2026 · Kontan · 02.11.2026 · Pantau · July data · RRI / BPS · August data

Inflation 3.87%: fuel and vegetables

Prices in Bali rose faster in October than in the country. The causes are the same as in last issue's headlines.

3.87% inflation in Bali in October, year on year · 0.25% price growth in Bali for the month · 3.23% inflation in Indonesia in October, year on year · 3.79% inflation in Bali in September, for comparison

On 2 November BPS published October prices. Nationally inflation was 3.23% year on year and 0.22% for the month, with food and transport the main contributors. In Bali price growth was higher: 3.87% for the year and 0.25% for the month. Bank Indonesia's office links this to the fuel supply disruption in mid-October and to dearer vegetables.

Bali has now been above the upper bound of its 1.5-3.5% target range for a third month. The authorities respond locally: on 28 October Gianyar held a cheap market for staple goods to bring down prices of rice, eggs and cooking oil. That is a measure for a week, not a season.

For a villa owner inflation is not macroeconomics but an index on the budget. Cleaning, laundry, guest supplies and staff wages rise by roughly this amount a year, and faster in months with disruption. A management contract with cost reimbursement will pass the rise to the owner in the November report.

The second conclusion concerns the rate. If the dollar price per night has not changed since the start of the year while rupiah costs rose 3.9%, the margin has narrowed, and the weaker rupiah has only partly compensated. The calculation on the next page shows exactly how much.

Sources: BPS · 02.11.2026 · Antara Bali · 02.11.2026 · Bank Indonesia, Bali · Antara Bali · 28.10.2026 · Gianyar

Rupiah: 18,135, 18,137, 18,147

The close on 26 October was the weakest since June. The week passed in a narrow corridor above 18,100, and October closed at 18,147 per dollar.

On Monday 26 October the rupiah closed at 18,135 per dollar, by Kontan's reckoning the weakest close since June. On Thursday 29 October it recovered 0.26% to 18,137, on Friday 30 October it weakened again to 18,147. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR reference rate for 30 October was 18,143.4.

For comparison: a week earlier the Friday close was 18,080, and on 20 October the regulator reported 17,985. So in two weeks the rupiah lost about 0.9% with the rate held at 5.75% and wider hedging incentives, which we covered in issue 10. Intervention slows the move but does not reverse it.

For a villa buyer holding dollars a rate above 18,100 keeps making rupiah payments cheaper: materials, labour, wages. For an owner earning rupiah from local guests it is a minus on the dollar result. So the currency of the price and of the stage payments remains the main question in a contract.

Check whether your contract fixes the conversion rate and its date. With a move of 60-70 rupiah in a week, the difference between invoice date and payment date is fractions of a percent, but on a $50,000 construction-stage payment that is already hundreds of dollars.

Sources: Kontan · 26.10, 29.10, 30.10.2026 · Databoks / JISDOR · 30.10.2026 · Bank Indonesia · 21.10.2026

Inflation inside the report: a conditional model

A conditional DOMA calculation. A villa with dollar revenue and rupiah costs, three scenarios a year ahead, exchange rate 18,147.

Line of the month, USDBaseCosts +3.87%, rate unchangedCosts +3.87%, rate +3.87%
Revenue: 18 nights at $1502,7002,7002,804
Manager's commission 25%−675−675−701
Rupiah costs, Rp 15.5m a month−854−887−887
Owner's result for the month1,1711,1381,216
Change against base−33+45

Take the property from the last issue: an average rate of $150, 18 paid nights, a manager's commission of 25% of dollar revenue and Rp 15.5 million of monthly costs for staff, utilities and supplies. At 18,147 the rupiah costs come to $854, and the owner receives $1,171 a month.

If costs rise 3.87% over the year, like October inflation in Bali, and the rate stays the same, the owner loses $33 a month, about $400 a year. If the rate is raised by the same 3.87%, to $155.8 a night, the result rises by $45 a month, because dollar revenue is larger than rupiah costs.

The calculation shows that with dollar revenue, rupiah inflation eats the margin slowly, and indexing the rate returns it with room to spare. The question is whether the market accepts the increase. In a season with 66% occupancy across the island, not every property has room to raise its price.

For a villa with rupiah revenue the picture is the reverse: costs and income rise together, and the dollar result depends only on the exchange rate. Such a property does not fear inflation, but it fears the rupiah. Both variables are worth showing separately in the report.

DOMA illustration. Inflation, exchange rate and nightly rate are conditional. Taxes, bank fees and unlisted costs are excluded. This is not a forecast of returns or a pricing recommendation.

Jatiluwih: two halted building sites

Tabanan's authorities halted a restaurant in the green belt and riverside works without permits. The UNESCO-listed terraces are becoming a testing ground for zoning enforcement.

According to detikBali on 2 November, construction of a two-storey restaurant in the green belt of Jatiluwih village was halted: the building breaches the spatial plan and the construction moratorium in force. A day later NusaBali reported a second stop: Tabanan's public order unit interrupted site preparation by a river near the entrance to the terraces because the workers could not show permits or the land's designated use.

The context of both stories is the same. Jatiluwih is a World Heritage site around which cafes and viewpoints have multiplied in recent years. On 16 October the terraces' manager said visitor numbers fell by almost 50% during the fuel crisis days. Tourism income makes land by the terraces expensive, while the green belt and the river setback make it unbuildable.

For a buyer of land in rural Tabanan these are two direct questions before signing: what zone the plot is in under the RTRW and whether there is an ITR statement of designated use, and how far the plot boundary is from the river. A stop-work order is not only a fine but downtime, demolition and a return to building from scratch.

The third question is the moratorium. In Tabanan, as in other regencies, restrictions on new building apply in certain zones. A seller who says 'everyone builds' is not answerable for the inspection arriving at your site. A lawyer checks by documents, not by words.

What to checkWhereWhat it confirms
Plot zone under the RTRW and ITR statementRegency spatial planning officeWhether building is allowed and what
River setback and riparian stripProvincial rules, site planPlot is not in a protected strip
LP2B status and agricultural designationnotary, and">ATR/BPN, regencyLand is not a protected paddy field
Moratorium in forceRegency and provincial regulationsNew construction is allowed now

Sources: detikBali · 02.11.2026 · NusaBali · 03.11.2026 · Bali Discovery · 21.10.2026 · ASITA Bali

Rice terraces: photo diary

The fields of Ubud and Tabanan were in two stories at once this week: halted building sites in Jatiluwih and statistics on shrinking paddy land. Archive photographs.

Ubud. The fields around the town are what guests come for and what is first to go under villas. Provincial Regulation 4 of 2026 limited the conversion of productive land for building and banned Perda">nominee ownership. A plot with a field view costs more, but the field's own status is checked at ATR/BPN, not by the view.

Jatiluwih. Subak terraces on the UNESCO list since 2012 and the green belt around them. Two building sites were halted here this week. For an investor it illustrates a simple rule: the more famous the view, the stricter the control over the land next to it.

Paddy land down 9.2%

BPS Bali: 64,774 hectares of rice fields in 2024 against 2019. The governor is looking for a way to make a field more profitable than a villa.

64,774 ha of paddy land in Bali in 2024, BPS · −9.19% against the 2019 area · 10-20 harvests: what a plot is worth in investors' offers, per the governor · No. 4 / 2026 provincial regulation limiting land conversion

On 3 November NusaBali cited BPS Bali data: the island's paddy land shrank to about 64,774 hectares in 2024, 9.19% less than in 2019. The 2026 harvest outlook is slightly positive but provisional. Five years and almost a tenth of the fields is a pace the authorities call a threat.

The province's answer has been known since September. At a seminar on 20 September Governor Wayan Koster said a ban on conversion is not enough: investors offer farmers a price equal to 10-20 years of harvests, and a ban without incentives does not work. Among the measures discussed are exempting protected LP2B fields from land tax, a higher tax on sales for development and refusing electricity connections to buildings on LP2B land.

For a land buyer the key document is the plot's status at ATR/BPN and in the regency plan. A field with LP2B status cannot be converted for a villa, and a seller's promise to 'convert it' is worth nothing here. A field without LP2B status can be converted, but the procedure has become longer and dearer, and Regulation 4 added notary oversight.

There is a practical side too. A villa next to a working field gets water from the subak on its schedule, machine noise and smoke from burning straw after harvest. That is not an argument against, but lines in the property description for the guest and in the owner's budget.

Sources: NusaBali · 03.11.2026 · BPS Bali · Bali Discovery · 24.09.2026 · seminar of 20.09.2026 · Perda Bali No. 4 / 2026

Unlicensed money changers and counterfeit notes

In Tegallalang 10 of 13 money changers operated without a licence, in Denpasar 3,731 counterfeit notes were destroyed. Two stories about one thing: cash in Bali is a risk zone.

On 3 November detikBali reported an inspection in Tegallalang, Gianyar regency: of 13 currency exchange outlets only three showed a licence, ten were declared illegal. Tegallalang is the Ceking terraces and the road from Ubud northwards, one of the island's most touristic spots, and the money changers there cater precisely to guests.

A week earlier, on 27 October, Bali police and Bank Indonesia destroyed 3,731 counterfeit notes worth Rp 341.5 million. The notes had been withdrawn from circulation through banks, meaning they had already passed through tills. Neither story is directly about property, but both are about how cash moves on the island.

For a villa owner the conclusion concerns partners. If a manager, driver or 'helper' takes guest payments in cash and changes currency, ask where and under what licence. An illegal money changer can close together with the money, and a counterfeit note in the villa's till becomes the owner's problem.

For a buyer the conclusion is simpler still and repeats our escrow article: large sums go through a bank, with a payment purpose and tied to a deal stage. Cash on a deal means losing the trail, and in Bali also the risk of meeting what was destroyed on 27 October.

Sources: detikBali · 03.11.2026 · Gianyar · Antara Bali · 28.10.2026 · Polda Bali and Bank Indonesia

Taxes: Rp 12.69 trillion in a quarter

Collections in Bali for the third quarter rose 8.91%, partly thanks to penalty relief. Denpasar moved more than half of its land-tax payers online.

Rp 12.69tn tax collections in Bali in Q3 2026 · +8.91% against Q3 2025 · +109.74% rise in PBB-P2 payers using digital channels in Denpasar · Rp 10.12bn arrears found by Denpasar in October, issue 10

On 1 November Antara Bali reported that tax collections in Bali reached Rp 12.69 trillion in the third quarter, 8.91% more than a year earlier. The regional tax office partly credits a penalty and interest relief programme: taxpayers settled old debts while the relief lasted.

On 27 October Denpasar reported a 109.74% rise in the number of PBB-P2 land-tax payers using digital channels. That continues last issue's story, when the city found Rp 10.12 billion in arrears and 575 green-zone objects that had changed function. Digital payment makes control easier for both sides.

For a villa owner there are two practical steps. First: ask the accountant whether the property has accrued penalties or interest and whether the relief on writing them off still applies. The principal tax does not go away, and the full amount should be used in the yield calculation.

Second: obtain a statement of no PBB-P2 arrears before a deal, and after the deal move payment to a digital channel so the payment history is visible at any moment. The statement is issued by the regency's Bapenda, and in Denpasar it is now processed faster.

Sources: Antara Bali · 01.11.2026 · Bali regional tax office · Antara Bali · 27.10.2026 · Denpasar city government · NusaBali · 26.10.2026

Credit and trade: what Bank Indonesia sees

Subsidised state credit in Bali rose by a third, and the regulator expects trade to pick up for the holidays. This is about the island's economy, not villa prices.

IndicatorValueSource, date
Priority state credit in Bali, Q1-Q3 2026Rp 10.82tn, +35% y/yFinance Ministry via Antara Bali, 02.11
Number of borrowers+5.46% y/yFinance Ministry via Antara Bali, 02.11
BI Bali outlook for Q4growth in wholesale and retail tradeAntara Bali, 03.11
Credit programmes nationwide, OctoberRp 294.6tn, 4.27 million borrowersAntara, 03.11

According to the Finance Ministry, Rp 10.82 trillion of priority state credit was disbursed in Bali over three quarters of 2026, almost 35% more than a year earlier, and the number of borrowers rose 5.46%. On 29 October an international forum on state credit programmes took place in Nusa Dua, where these figures were announced.

Bank Indonesia's office expects wholesale and retail trade to support the island's economy in the fourth quarter on the back of the holiday season. That is an expectation, not an occupancy forecast: a villa's income depends on location, price and management, not on the island average.

For a villa owner cheap credit for small business means that service providers, laundries, transport, repair crews, get working capital and can hold prices. It is an indirect effect, but in months with 3.87% inflation it is noticeable.

For a buyer thinking about financing, a reminder from our mortgage article: a villa loan from an Indonesian bank is almost inaccessible to a foreigner, and the subsidised programmes are for citizens and local business. Comparing offers is worth doing, but the source of funds usually stays outside the island.

Sources: Antara Bali · 02.11 and 03.11.2026 · Indonesian Finance Ministry · Bank Indonesia, Bali · ANTARA · 03.11.2026

Bali as a financial centre and family offices

For two weeks running Jakarta has spoken of Bali as a home for capital. For now these are statements, but the direction matters to an investor.

  • 27.10 National Economic Council chairman Luhut Pandjaitan allows at a press conference that family offices could be hosted in Bali. The government is studying practice in eight countries, including Singapore, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Gujarat. The location decision rests with the president.
  • 29.10 Coordinating economic minister Airlangga Hartarto at a forum in Nusa Dua: Bali is being prepared as the country's second financial centre after Jakarta, the regulatory part is at the final stage. Governor Koster replies that the island will provide the site if the centre decides.
  • 03.11 Bali Discovery after BeritaBali: Luhut insists on legal certainty for investors, the regulatory review involves the attorney general's office, the KPK and parliament, and the results go to the president within a week.

A family office is a structure that manages the capital of one wealthy family. Singapore, by figures Luhut cited, attracted up to $30 billion into such structures in a single quarter. Indonesia wants part of that flow and sees Bali as a place such families are willing to move to.

For the villa market this is not tomorrow's demand but a signal of which audience the state plans to bring to the island. If the programme happens, demand will grow for long-term rental and purchase of expensive properties in Nusa Dua, Sanur and the Bukit, and for services: schools, clinics, lawyers. The first steps exist: the health special zone in Sanur and Kura Kura Bali.

The caveat is the same as in all our pieces on state programmes: until there is a regulation, there is no programme. Rules 'at the final stage' can be debated for months, and the legal certainty Luhut speaks of matters to today's villa buyers no less than to future family offices.

The practical conclusion: watch the regulation, not the headlines, and do not price a 'financial centre' into a property. When the document comes out, we will cover it separately.

Sources: Bali Discovery · 03.11.2026 after BeritaBali · DEN press conference 27.10.2026 · Antara Bali · 29.10.2026 · Nusa Dua forum

Badung water: Rp 150 billion for pipes

The regency parliament approved a capital injection for the water utility twice the original request. The shortfall in the south is 1,115 litres a second.

Rp 150bn new capital for the Tirta Mangutama utility, approved by Badung's DPRD · Rp 73bn the original request · 1,115 l/s water shortfall in the network, per the utility · 2029 horizon of the plan, issue 10

On 1 November NusaBali reported that Badung's parliament approved an injection of Rp 150 billion into the municipal water utility Tirta Mangutama. Rp 73 billion was proposed originally. The money goes to pipes and networks for South Kuta: Jimbaran, Uluwatu, Pecatu, Ungasan. The utility puts the shortfall at about 1,115 litres a second.

In the last issue we wrote about the regency's intention to recapitalise the utility with a plan to 2029. Now there is an approved sum, but the payments must clear budget procedure and the works need a schedule and a contractor. Until then, as with any infrastructure promise, the improvement is not built into a yield model.

For a villa owner on the Bukit the question stays the same: is the property on the network, and if not, what do a well and trucked water cost in the dry season. This year also brought a prolonged drought: BMKG moved the start of the rains to November, and water trucks in the south worked longer than usual.

For a buyer Rp 150 billion for south Badung is an argument for the area on a three-year horizon, but not an argument to pay more today. The connection contract, recent bills and the history of water-truck call-outs still matter more than the regency's plans.

Sources: NusaBali · 01.11.2026 · DPRD Badung, PDAM Tirta Mangutama · detikBali · 23.10.2026 · Bali Discovery · 03.11.2026 · BMKG

The rains are late: what it means for a house

BMKG moved the start of Bali's rainy season to November and links the delay to El Niño. A dry October is not only about water but about the first downpour on dry ground.

On 3 November Bali Discovery, citing the meteorological agency BMKG, reported that Bali's rainy season is late this year: it usually begins in October, in 2026 the start is expected in November. The cause is El Niño, which shifts the wet season across Indonesia.

For a villa the delayed rains mean three things. First: the dry season is longer, consumption of trucked and well water is higher, and the October bill will be larger than usual. Second: the first downpours after a long drought run over compacted ground and clogged channels, and that is exactly when it becomes clear whether the drainage works.

Third: the roof, gutters and downpipes fill with leaves and dust over a long dry season. They need cleaning before the first downpour, not after. This week we published a detailed guide to drainage and the rainy season, and we repeat its checklist on page 19 as a season passport.

There is an upside for rentals: a dry, sunny October extends the high season for guests from Australia and Asia. But reviews about a 'flooded terrace' in the first week of rain cancel that upside faster than it accumulated.

Sources: Bali Discovery · 03.11.2026 · BMKG · DOMA blog · 27.10.2026 · drainage and the rainy season

Ubud: Campuhan and the Monkey Forest

The town's two most visited places and two different kinds of neighbourhood for a villa. Archive photographs.

Campuhan. A ridge between two rivers with a path for morning walks. Villas along the path are sold with a 'ridge view', and this is a case where the view is protected: on both sides are river valleys and slopes where building is not allowed. But a slope means drainage, retaining walls and a road a water truck cannot climb.

The Monkey Forest. A temple forest in the centre of Ubud visited by thousands of guests a day. Villas within walking distance are booked year round, but live with traffic, parking and the very monkeys that wander onto the terrace. A manager who warns the guest in advance gets a better review than one who stays silent.

The October report: what to check

October brought a crisis week, inflation above target and a rupiah above 18,100. Six lines the manager should show separately.

LineWhat should be in the reportWhat to compare with
Occupancy and rateNights, average rate, cancellations of 12-23 October as a separate lineSeptember and last October, 66.4% for star hotels
PurchasesSupplier prices against September, supplier list with origin of produceInflation in Bali 3.87%
StaffCrisis-week overtime, travel compensationContract and the rule when the minimum wage changes
Exchange rateRate on each rupiah payment, date fixed18,080 on 23.10, 18,147 on 30.10
Water and energyPLN and water bills, water-truck call-outs for the dry OctoberSeptember, adjusted for the delayed rains
TaxesPBB-P2 paid, no penalties or interest, Bapenda statementPenalty relief, Q3

The October report is the first in which all three events of the month are visible at once: the week of petrol queues, rising prices and a weaker rupiah. The owner's main task is to separate one-off from permanent. Cancellations and generator fuel are one-off lines, higher purchases and the exchange rate are permanent.

Ask the manager to show October occupancy against last October, not against September. The seasonal dip after summer is normal, but a lag behind last October is either the crisis week or a question about the property. The difference is visible only with the right comparison.

On purchases request two figures: how much the bill rose with existing suppliers and whether new ones appeared. The kitchen checks for local produce the governor warned of on 23 October have not yet become fines, but a supplier list with origin is better to have before anyone asks.

And last: if the report has no line for water in the dry October, ask. The long dry season in the south meant more water-truck runs, and that sum should be visible, not dissolved in 'other costs'.

DOMA editorial method. The contents of a report depend on the management contract and the platforms the property is let through.

Rainy-season passport

Five blocks to check before the first downpour. This year the owner still has a few days for it.

BlockWhat to check and record
Roof and guttersRoof condition, gutters and downpipes clean, where roof water goes, date of last cleaning
PlotGradients away from the house, storm drains and channels cleared, discharge points free, traces of last year's flooding
SlopeRetaining walls without cracks, their drainage working, anti-erosion planting in place
HouseWaterproofing of wet zones, windows and doors close tightly, wiring outside leak zones
People and equipmentWho responds to flooding at night, where the pump and generator are, the text of the season warning to the guest

The rainy-season passport continues the series of villa passports: fuel, energy, procurement. The idea is the same: record the baseline before the event, so you can compare and argue by facts afterwards. The reason is specific: BMKG expects the rains to start in November, and every dry day now is time to prepare.

Start with the roof. Over the dry season gutters fill with leaves and dust, and the first downpour spills over the edge straight onto walls and foundations. Cleaning gutters costs less than any repair of finishes, but it has to be done before the rain. The cleaning date in the passport is a simple way to check the manager.

Then the plot and the slope. Water after a drought runs over compacted ground and does not soak in, so gradients and channels work at their limit. On a slope inspect the retaining walls: a crack that did not change over the dry season can grow in one week of rain.

The last block is people. Flooding happens at night, when the guest calls the manager, not the owner. The passport should record who comes, where the pump is and what the guest receives in the season message before arrival. That is cheaper than compensation for a ruined holiday.

DOMA editorial method. Technical decisions on drainage and roofing are for a specialist, and the set of measures depends on the plot.

Guest markets: who came in nine months

Australia gives a quarter of the flow, China and India compete for second place, the United Kingdom is ahead of France for the year. BPS data for January-September.

Australia: 1,303,734 · China: 456,046 · India: 394,155 · United Kingdom: 230,010

For January-September 2026 Australia delivered 1,303,734 arrivals, one in four. China was second with 456,046, India third with 394,155, the United Kingdom fourth with 230,010. In September the top five was: Australia 165,100, China 54,284, India 41,645, Japan 30,322, France 28,405.

For a villa owner the structure of the flow matters more than the total. Australians come all year on short trips and need properties by the southern beaches and near the airport. Europeans come in summer for long stays, and it was their departure in September that gave the region's minus 18.1%. Chinese and Indian guests more often travel in groups and choose hotels over villas.

TransNusa's new Melbourne route, which we covered last issue, adds capacity on the main market. South Korea's consulate in Denpasar and direct flights from Asia work on the second tier. Europe will return after September only by December.

The practical conclusion for pricing: a property built for the European guest holds its rate worse in October-November than one built for the Australian. Compare your bookings by country with this structure, and if Europe's share is above 40%, plan for a weak November.

Sources: BPS Bali via Antara Bali · 02.11.2026 · detikBali · 02.11.2026

Calendar: what to expect in November

Six events that will change the numbers in the coming issues. Dates follow the agencies' schedules. Where no schedule is published, the usual timing is given.

5.75% Bank Indonesia rate before the November meeting · 18,147 rupiah per dollar on 30 October · 3.45-5.25m range for the 2027 minimum wage, rupiah a month · −58.1% capital spending in Bali's draft 2027 budget

  • Early November BPS publishes Q3 GDP for the country and for Bali. For the island it is the first test of the growth forecast of up to 5.9% that Bank Indonesia spoke of.
  • November Review of the subsidised Pertalite quota. Minister Bahlil promised a figure after the end of October. By 2 November it has not been published.
  • Mid-November Bank Indonesia's board meeting on the rate. After 5.75% and the deposit-rate increase in October, the market will watch the rupiah above 18,100.
  • By end-November Decision on the 2027 minimum wage. The unions demand Rp 5.25 million, the governor's formula calculation is about 3.45 million, the Badung projection 4.0 million.
  • November Approval of Bali's 2027 budget: capital spending in the draft is cut by 58.1%, legislators demand the list of postponed projects and debate the tourist levy target.
  • November Start of the rainy season per BMKG's forecast. The first downpours will test drainage, and October arrival statistics come out in early December.

November is the month when October's figures become official. Quarterly GDP will show how much the crisis week and inflation affected the island's economy, and the minimum-wage decision will set a villa's payroll for all of 2027.

Bank Indonesia's rate decision matters for the exchange rate, and the rate for every construction-stage payment. If the regulator again holds 5.75% with the rupiah above 18,100, pressure on the currency will persist, which suits buyers with dollars and not owners with rupiah revenue.

The provincial budget and the Pertalite quota touch the owner indirectly but noticeably: the first decides which roads and water mains get built in 2027, the second whether October's petrol queue repeats. The rainy season, by contrast, touches every house directly, and one prepares for it now, not after the fact.

We will return to each of these events in the weekly issues, and in the first December issue we will bring them together in one table with October arrivals.

Sources: BPS and Bank Indonesia schedules · ANTARA · 23.10.2026 · Bali Discovery · 25.10 and 03.11.2026 · NusaBali · 26.10.2026

Market in numbers

Only confirmed data with a date and a source. The statistical period is stated separately from the publication date.

IndicatorValueSource, date
Foreign arrivals, September650,169, −5.22% m/m, +2.36% y/yBPS Bali, 02.11
Arrivals, January-September5,237,128, −1.15% y/yBPS Bali, 02.11
Arrivals, July / August697,809 / 685,994BPS Bali, 02.11
Australia / China / India, September165,100 / 54,284 / 41,645BPS Bali, 02.11
Europe, September vs August−18.1%BPS Bali, 02.11
Star-hotel occupancy Bali, September66.42%, August 68.19%BPS, 02.11
Star-hotel occupancy, Indonesia51.78%BPS, 02.11
Inflation in Bali, October3.87% y/y, 0.25% m/mAntara Bali, 02.11
Inflation in Indonesia, October3.23% y/y, 0.22% m/mBPS, 02.11
USD/IDR close 26.10 / 29.10 / 30.1018,135 / 18,137 / 18,147Kontan, 26-30.10
JISDOR, 30.1018,143.4Bank Indonesia / Databoks, 30.10
Tax collections in Bali, Q3Rp 12.69tn, +8.91%Antara Bali, 01.11
Priority state credit in Bali, Q1-Q3Rp 10.82tn, +35%Antara Bali, 02.11
Badung water utility capitalRp 150bn, shortfall 1,115 l/sNusaBali, 01.11
Paddy land in Bali, 202464,774 ha, −9.19% on 2019NusaBali / BPS, 03.11
Unlicensed money changers, Tegallalang10 of 13detikBali, 03.11
Counterfeit notes destroyed3,731 worth Rp 341.5mAntara Bali, 28.10
PBB-P2 payers online, Denpasar+109.74%Antara Bali, 27.10
Start of the rainy seasonNovember, delayedBali Discovery / BMKG, 03.11
Family offices: Singapore benchmarkup to $30bn a quarterBali Discovery, 03.11

Quarterly and annual indicators refer to the whole island or country and do not transfer to individual villas.

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